Friday, November 03, 2006

Statistics rant Abuse rant

ABI Research appear to have carried out an exercise in futility recently, asking 1725 US teenagers if they would replace their existing iPods with a product not yet launched, that no-one has really seen and few have used. 58% said they would, therefore Apple is doomed. Apparently.

I hate this kind of research almost as much as I hate publicising it (though I think our readership is small enough that that doesn't matter too much ;) ). Firstly, what were the exact questions, and who paid for the research (closely related I'm sure)? Secondly, once quite a few people have got their hands on a Zune, and some word-of-mouth has spread, will the results bear any relation to this?

It is unfair to say that the Microsoft Zune will not be a quantum leap in music playing - maybe it will be easier to use than the iPod, look sexier, have fewer bugs and have less intrusive DRM and a better syncing solution. Its Microsoft heritage suggests otherwise but we won't know til the reviews are out, and asking this kind of question now is meaningless and only goes to show how you can buy opinions - I can't 100% guarantee Microsoft paid for this research but I bet they're not upset by it, and I also bet if Apple had carried out the research it would have reflected roughly the opposite opinion...


Another example of this recently, in a press release picked up by MobHappy, Nokia claimed "two out of three consumers whose phones can play digital tracks already use it for that purpose". Two thirds of users? 67% use their phones as music players??? Intuitively to me this feels wrong, as I pointed out in the comments - but it was nice to find m:metrics agreed with me (UK nearer 3%, US trailing on 0.7%), and I respect their figures more than the unverified soundbite of a Nokia PR bunny trying to justify a $60m purchase of a music portal. Nothing against Russell or MobHappy, they have their stand and they have every chance of being proven right, but not by corporate misinformation like that "2 in 3" quote...


UPDATE: and again, I got carried away without fully researching, so I should stick to mobile phones where I have reasonably up-to-date knowledge... A few people have been allowed to touch Zunes and write about it, though whether the 1725 US teenagers had read the summaries is not mentioned. So I've corrected the earlier false assumptions but the sentiment remains the same... and suitable chastised for not thoroughly researching etc. Certainly for me, the problem with blogging is you fire off a missive when still enthusiastic or annoyed by something, spur of the moment, and don't have time to fully research - if you try, you never end up actually posting the thing

1 Comments:

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